708
FXUS06 KWBC 281902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 04 - 08 2026
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STABLE 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (-NAO)
FAVORS TROUGHING RELOADING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (-120 METERS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING TO THE GULF
COAST. UPSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED IN THE
MANUAL BLEND. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE
TOUGH ACROSS THE EAST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH INCREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AS TROUGHING PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE,
MAKING A CLOSE APPROACH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING EARLY MAY. WHILE A BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE RELOADING TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EAST. THE 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND
DEPICTS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -5 TO -10 DEG F FOR THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND SUPPORT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS. GIVEN STRONG TOOL
SUPPORT, TODAY'S FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE EXCEPTION IS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. RIDGING FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWER
FOUR CORNERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A VARIABLE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS FAVORS NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE
LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED OVER KAUAI.
THE TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS INCREASED
CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARING IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
AS WELL. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE REDUCED FORCING DECREASES PROBABILITIES
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST,
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE REGION AND
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE EAST. THE SAME SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CLIMATOLOGIES ARE LOW. CONVERSELY, RIDGING FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ANALOG GUIDANCE. FOR
ALASKA, TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS TIED TO TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
DUE TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING A STABLE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST,
OFFSET BY WEAKER PRECIPITATION SIGNALS OVER THE CONUS, AND A MORE VARIABLE
PATTERN PREDICTED ACROSS ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 06 - 12 2026
THE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED. THE WEEK-2
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. THE
GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MORE ZONAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE CONUS LATER IN WEEK-2, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PERSISTING SOME
DEGREE OF WEAK AMPLIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
RIDGING PERSISTING LONGER OVER THE WEST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN, BUT WITH NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAINING FAVORED OVER THE REGION. RIDGING IS FORECAST
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WHERE WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO BE INDICATED, ALTHOUGH THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE
AMPLITUDE OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING WEEK-2, WITH ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND.
SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN TIER MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LATE SEASON FROSTS, POTENTIALLY DELAYING ADDITIONAL
SPRING BLOOMS OR DAMAGING EXISTING VEGETATION. STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TILTS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TOWARD ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS. RIDGING OVER THE WEST SUPPORTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THIS RIDGE MAY ULTIMATELY
FLATTEN LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE EMERGENT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WOULD ALSO
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COMBINATION OF WEAKENING
TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE COASTAL
WESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD LEADS TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 40 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
ACTIVITY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS AN UPTICK IN ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHWEST,
CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND
ALSO DUE TO A LOW PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY. ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A VARIABLE MID-LEVEL PATTERN RESULTS IN
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA, EXCEPT A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND CONTINUED GOOD TOOL
AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME INCREASING MODEL SPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AND A
MORE UNCERTAIN PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980415 - 20210413 - 20240503 - 19950417 - 20160511
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190504 - 19980413 - 20160510 - 20100413 - 20120407
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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