593
FOUS11 KWBC 291814
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
VALID 00Z THU APR 30 2026 - 00Z SUN MAY 03 2026
..CENTRAL & SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 1-3...
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE
MEXICAN BORDER AND GULF COAST. BEHIND THIS FRONT, COOL AIR WILL
FLOOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, WITH POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY
FLOW BANKING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY TO PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
TERRAIN.
AS THIS OCCURS, SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES FORCING A POSITIVELY TILTED, LONGWAVE TROUGH, TO DRIFT
EAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE ASCENT
THROUGH HEIGHT FALLS AND THE DIFFLUENT LFQ OF A CORRESPONDING
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, SINCE THE TROUGH AXIS LAGS TO THE WEST,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUALLY FUNNEL OVERHEAD ON MID-LEVEL SW FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC, MANIFESTING AS LARGE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WHERE
FORCING OVERLAPS THIS MOISTURE PLUME.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW ABOVE GENERALLY
8000 FT, BUT LOCALLY SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO BELOW 7000 FT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OR AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVERHEAD TO LOWER THICKNESSES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE POPULATED
I-25 CORRIDOR OF CO/NM, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
AS REFLECTED BY WPC PROBABILITIES THAT ARE GENERALLY 50-70% FOR 4+
INCHES IN THESE AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING ACROSS
THESE PORTIONS OF I-25 AS REFLECTED BY 30-50% PROBABILITIES OF AT
LEAST MINOR IMPACTS FROM THE WSSI-P.
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED (>70% CHANCE) TO
EXCEED 12 INCHES BEFORE SNOW WANES QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING, ARE
FORECAST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS.
LOCALLY 2+ FEET IS POSSIBLE (10-30% CHANCE) IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS,
INCLUDING PIKE'S PEAK AND ALONG THE WET MOUNTAINS WEST OF PUEBLO,
CO.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONUS.
WEISS
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