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FXUS06 KWBC 291902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 29 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09 2026
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A STABLE 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (-NAO)
FAVORS TROUGHING RELOADING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH PEAKING DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS THE LARGEST NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES (-150 METERS) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING TO NEAR THE GULF COAST.
UPSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
PERIOD WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE TOUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS RESULTING IN
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO RIDGE CENTERS NEAR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH A DOWNWARD TREND IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IS FAVORED AS THESE FEATURES
WEAKEN AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGHING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AS TROUGHING PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE,
MAKING A CLOSE APPROACH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING EARLY MAY. WHILE A BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE RELOADING TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EAST. THE 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE HAS TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND
NOW DEPICTS DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -10 TO -15 DEG F ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANALOGS DERIVED
FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH FURTHER SUPPORT
FROM TELECONNECTIONS. GIVEN STRONG TOOL SUPPORT, TODAY'S FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN TIER MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LATE SEASON FROSTS, POTENTIALLY DELAYING
ADDITIONAL SPRING BLOOMS OR DAMAGING EXISTING VEGETATION. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING, AND OVER EASTERN MAINE, UPSTREAM OF THE
INCOMING TROUGH. RIDGING FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED 0Z
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER FOUR CORNERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UNDERNEATH RIDGING. TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FAVORS NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND CLOSER TO THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE BERING
SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER KAUAI.
THE TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS INCREASED
CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES
A POTENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST LATE IN
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS APPEARING IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES AS WELL. AS A RESULT, PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHILE REDUCED FORCING DECREASES
PROBABILITIES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST,
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE REGION AND
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE EAST WITH ADDED POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO FAVORS ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
CLIMATOLOGIES ARE LOW. CONVERSELY, RIDGING FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ANALOG GUIDANCE. FOR ALASKA,
TOOLS GENERALLY FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND, ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO TROUGHING
NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING A STABLE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST,
OFFSET BY WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A MORE
VARIABLE PATTERN PREDICTED ACROSS ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2026
THE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED. THE WEEK-2
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST, EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH MORE
RIDGING INDICATED ACROSS THE WEST. THE 0Z GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, SHIFTING THIS RIDGE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD AND DEPICTING A WEAK TROUGHING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MAINTAINS BROADER
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND +30 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
INDICATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST IN THE MANUAL BLEND. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN, BUT WITH NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAINING FAVORED OVER THE REGION. NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA AS THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS. WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN INDICATED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING WEEK-2, WITH ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. STRONGER
INFLUENCE FROM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TILTS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TOWARD
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS. RIDGING OVER THE WEST SUPPORTS HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA LEADS TO A MORE UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS THE STATE. SLIGHT TILTS TOWARD ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE FAR WESTERN
MAINLAND. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SUPPORTS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD LEADS TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 40 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
ACTIVITY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS AN UPTICK IN ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS AND ALSO DUE TO A
LOW PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY. ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ENHANCED
CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TIED TO RIDGING POTENTIALLY SHIFTING
FARTHER INLAND AND INCREASING PACIFIC FLOW, WITH DYNAMICAL MODELS, PARTICULARLY
THE 0Z GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, DEPICTING MORE TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ALSO FAVORS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND CONTINUED GOOD TOOL
AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME INCREASING MODEL SPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AND A
MORE UNCERTAIN PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980415 - 20210413 - 20240503 - 19910503 - 19910419
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910417 - 20190504 - 19980413 - 20160510 - 19910502
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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