480
FOUS11 KWBC 301850
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 01 2026 - 00Z MON MAY 04 2026
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 1-2...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHARPEN
AGAINST THE TERRAIN OF CO AND NM PROVIDING IMPRESSIVE EASTERLY FLOW
TO DRIVE UPSLOPE ASCENT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING SW INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, PRODUCING HEIGHT FALLS, WHICH WILL WORK TOGETHER WITH A
STRENGTHENING ZONALLY ORIENTED JET STREAK TO CREATE DEEP LAYER LIFT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LIFT WILL ACT UPON A
MODESTLY MOIST COLUMN THANKS TO PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING
EASTWARD, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
THE FRONT RANGE OF CO THROUGH THE SAN JUANS AND THEN DOWN INTO THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH AND A BIT
DRIER/WEAKER THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES, SO WHILE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY, THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS WHERE WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 8 INCHES D1 ARE AS HIGH AS 50-70%,
LEADING TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12-18 INCHES IN THESE
AREAS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FT, BUT SOME MINOR
LOWERING TO 6500-7000 FT WILL CREATE SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING OVER
THE ELEVATED PORTIONS OF I-25, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND RATON MESA.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONUS.
WEISS
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