197
FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 30 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 06 - 10 2026
A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (-NAO) FAVORS TROUGHING RELOADING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE
0Z GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS EXTENDING TO NEAR THE GULF COAST,
WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES (-150 METERS) OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. UPSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED
IN THE MANUAL BLEND. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THIS RIDGE
AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST RESULTING IN NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING INTO THE
LOWER FOUR CORNERS AND PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF
THE ISLANDS, AND NEAR-TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO RIDGING OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AS TROUGHING
PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE, MAKING A CLOSE APPROACH AROUND THE
OUTSET OF THE PERIOD.
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING EARLY MAY. WHILE A BRIEF MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE RELOADING TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EAST. THE 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DEPICTS DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -10 TO -15 DEG F ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO INCREASING IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND SUPPORT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS. GIVEN
STRONG TOOL SUPPORT, TODAY'S FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED CHANCES
FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SOME AREAS OF
THE NORTHERN TIER MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LATE SEASON FROSTS, POTENTIALLY DELAYING ADDITIONAL SPRING BLOOMS OR
DAMAGING EXISTING VEGETATION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING, AND OVER EASTERN MAINE, UPSTREAM OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. RIDGING
FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED 0Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
A VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA UNDERNEATH
INITIAL RIDGING. TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS COMBINED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FAVORS NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS, WITH UNCALIBRATED COOLS COLDER THAN THE REFORECAST
GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
THE TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS INCREASED
CHANCES OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A POTENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST, WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 0Z GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALSO DEPICT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHEAST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MAY LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIED TO A LOW
CLIMATOLOGY, AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVERSELY, RIDGING FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE ANALOG GUIDANCE. FOR ALASKA, TOOLS
GENERALLY FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND, ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TIED TO TROUGHING NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING A STABLE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST,
OFFSET BY WEAKENING PRECIPITATION SIGNALS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A MORE
VARIABLE PATTERN PREDICTED ACROSS ALASKA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 14 2026
THE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE 0Z GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER
IN THE PERIOD. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST, EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND WHICH INDICATES A +60 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO PARTS
OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DEPICT TROUGHING AND
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE GEFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND DEPICTS POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS
MOST OF ALASKA FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
THERE REMAINS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING WEEK-2. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ANALOGS DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND.
STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TILTS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TOWARD ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS. RIDGING OVER THE WEST SUPPORTS HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A LARGER
EXTENSION INTO THE GREAT PLAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA LEADS TO A MORE UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ACROSS THE STATE. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SUPPORTS
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MAINLAND.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD LEADS TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF
PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 40 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL
ACTIVITY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS AN UPTICK IN ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN CLOSER
TO THE WEST COAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE MIXED SIGNALS OVER THE PACIFIC.
WHILE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A DRIER PATTERN AS SEEN
IN THE ANALOGS, WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FAVORS AN UPTICK IN
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS APPARENT IN THE GEFS REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED NEAR THE WEST
COAST. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW ALSO FAVORS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND CONTINUED GOOD TOOL
AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY SOME INCREASING MODEL SPREAD LATER IN THE PERIOD AND A
MORE UNCERTAIN PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980415 - 20060504 - 19910503 - 19910419 - 20210413
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910502 - 19910418 - 19980415 - 20190507 - 20210413
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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