243
FXUS01 KWBC 010707
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 AM EDT FRI MAY 01 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 01 2026 - 12Z SUN MAY 03 2026
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, BEFORE MIGRATING EASTWARD....
...A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...
...MUCH-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY. A POTENT AND SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
FEEDING IN UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE REGION, AND A PROLONGED
INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOWING ONSHORE FROM THE WARMER
GULF. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTS CONTINUOUS ROUNDS.
THE STUBBORN PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS SUCH, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4)
REMAINS IN THE OUTLOOK TODAY FOR TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE IN THE
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF, AIDED BY A BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE.
TO START THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, AS A COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN FLORIDA, AS A COMBINATION
OF A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, INFLOW OF COMPARATIVELY WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF, AND THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AS A LIFTING
MECHANISM, DEVELOPS. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, BRING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, AND
ISOLATED HAIL. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY, PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERâ€S
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
AS THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE THEIR WAY THROUGH THEIR
RESPECTIVE REGIONS, SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
REGIONS OF THE U.S. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES COULD DROP AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
POTENTIALLY SET RECORD-LOW DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED. MUCH-BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
NORTHEAST, AND MIDWEST REGIONS. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
FURTHER WEST, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND
CALIFORNIA, BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COULD BE ESPECIALLY HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-80S AND EVEN APPROACHING 90 EXPECTED.
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