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FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 09 - 13 2026
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA ANOMALIES FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND EVOLUTION OVER NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, AND DEPICT AN
EASTWARD-PROPAGATING WAVETRAIN AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY AND RIDGES OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS NOTED, THESE FEATURES SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BOTH TROUGHS WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, EVENTUALLY SETTLING
INTO NEAR-ZONAL FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING WEEK-2.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CHANCES
ARE ESPECIALLY HIGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES, EXCEEDING 80% FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE, CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY AND A
COLD AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING A SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN WEEK-1 TILTS THE ODDS
TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, TENNESSEE VALLEY,
AND MID-ATLANTIC. CHANCES EXCEED 50% FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S., ALTHOUGH THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DECLINING RELATIVE TO
PRIOR FORECASTS AS THE SUPPORTING TROUGH IS FAVORED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AND
RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST HAVE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ESPECIALLY FLORIDA WHERE
CHANCES INCREASE SOUTHWARD AND EXCEED 60% FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WEAKLY FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKAN MAINLAND, WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA LEAN TOWARDS NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. HAWAII IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 60%.
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND MOIST RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
MARGIN OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHEST FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, LIKELY A COMBINATION OF PROXIMITY TO
GULF MOISTURE AND LOW CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. AMPLIFIED
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 50%.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN ALASKAN MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW, WHILE A WEAK BLOCKING RIDGE UPSTREAM
TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.
ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WEAKLY FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTICS AND COHERENT SIGNALS FROM FORECAST TOOLS,
OFFSET BY A SHIFTING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 17 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD THE WAVETRAIN DESCRIBED IN THE 6-10 DAY
DISCUSSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD OUT, WITH RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, AND THE PAIR
OF TROUGHS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND HUDSON BAY WEAKENING WHILE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE SPREADING RIDGE. THIS EVOLUTION RESULTS IN A MUCH FLATTER, NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SLOW
EVOLUTION, DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING, STILL RESEMBLES THE WAVETRAIN THAT
PRECEDED IT. THEREFORE, THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (>80%) REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A ROBUST
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INDICATING CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR FLORIDA, IN A SIMILAR NORTH-SOUTH TREND OF INCREASED
PROBABILITIES AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. LINGERING COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
FADING TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WEAKLY FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST U.S. FOR ALASKA,
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES, PUSHING
MOST OF THE MAINLAND TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE MODERATING
EFFECT OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH ODDS INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CONTINUED RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, LEADING TO A SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
WEAKLY INDICATED ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE GULF COAST, AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH HIGHER ODDS (>40%) ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST LIKELY TIED TO LOW CLIMATOLOGIES. CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, SPREADING FURTHER INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA
TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
ALASKAN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND. HAWAII REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII-CON.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTICS AND COHERENT SIGNALS FROM FORECAST TOOLS,
OFFSET BY A SHIFTING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230430 - 20150421 - 20190508 - 20240510 - 20250415
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190508 - 20230429 - 20150421 - 19980506 - 20080510
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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