902
FXUS02 KWBC 032000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VALID 12Z WED MAY 06 2026 - 12Z SUN MAY 10 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND REPEATED TROUGH
REINFORCEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING A STRETCH OF COOL, UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
U.S., WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN
UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND TOWARD FASTER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WITH MORE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
INTRUSION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, MODEL TIMINGS REMAIN REASONABLY GOOD REGARDING THE
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND NEAR THE U.S.-MEXICAN
BORDER LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE BEING EJECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS EXHIBITS THE TYPICALLY FASTER
EJECTION BIAS WITH THIS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH RELATIVE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS. NEVERTHELESS, MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
TRENDED TOWARD FASTER NORTHWARD INTRUSION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE WET SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK TO TAPER OFF ON
THURSDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC FORECAST CHARTS WERE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE 06Z GFS/GEFS, 00Z ECMWF/EC MEAN, AND 00Z CMC/CMC, WITH
INCREASING PROPORTIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONVERGING
NEAR THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO PROGRESS STEADILY THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S.
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE
DYNAMIC FORCINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONVERGE WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE GULF TO SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER ON WEDNESDAY TO EARLY ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FORCINGS APPEAR GREATEST
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LIKELY RECEIVE RAINFALL FROM THIS
COLD FRONT BEFORE THE FRONT SWINGS OFF THE EAST COAST BEHIND A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE ON FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, WITH FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
WED-THU, AND THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRI-SAT. WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION OVER SOME ISOLATED HIGHER- ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK. THE ONGOING WET
SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND END BY EARLY ON THURSDAY. BY
THE WEEKEND, A MODERATING TREND WILL SPREAD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE PLAINS AND HEAD EASTWARD.
OVER THE WESTERN U.S., THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN GRADUALLY
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE BRING SOME LOW ELEVATION
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, AS THE WET SNOW BLANKETS THE
FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL ALSO BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS ROCKIES/PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A RIDGE WILL PUSH INLAND,
BRINGING A WARMING TREND. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN U.S.
LATER NEXT WEEK.
KONG/OUDIT
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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