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FXCA20 KWBC 041816
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 4 MAY 2026 AT 1800 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA,
STARTING TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN EASTWARD-PROPAGATING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALSO INCREASE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE BAHAMAS, PROMOTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE BAHAMAS. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN, LIGHT PRECIPITATION DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING, AND LOCAL EFFECTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, PRODUCING DAILY ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 05-15MM. AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS,
PROPAGATES AND REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SOME SHALLOW
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY; HOWEVER, LOW LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OVER MOST OF MEXICO, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING AT
MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AND LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER PREVAILING IN THE
REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND BELIZE, SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA, DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE ANTICIPATED EVERY DAY OVER
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
FURTHER ENHANCE THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE REGION. AT MID-LEVELS, THE PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY. AT UPPER-LEVELS AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED
OVER COSTA RICA, FURTHER INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION EACH DAY. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, MOISTURE ADVECTION, OROGRAPHIC LIFTING,
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AMAZON REGION, AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER PERU ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION AND DEEP MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED IN THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, AN ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AND THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) WILL BRING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
TO THE AMAZON DELTA, AND EASTERN AMAZON REGION BY INCREASING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOW-LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THE PROPAGATION
OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE GUIANAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROMOTES THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS, HOWEVER,
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK LIMITING HIGH ACCUMULATIONS
OF RAIN. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE COASTS OF
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING MORE RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE AMAZON AND
PORTIONS OF THE ORINOQUIA REGION IN COLOMBIA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE REGION.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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