252
FXUS02 KWBC 041906
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VALID 12Z THU MAY 07 2026 - 12Z MON MAY 11 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIVE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND REPEATED TROUGH REINFORCEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A STRETCH OF COOL,
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THE PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND, THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG PARTS OF EASTERN U.S.
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO THE AREA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHILE A WARMING TREND ENSUES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS WELL AS THE EMERGING
RIDGE IN THE WEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE
AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND WHETHER IT
PHASES WITH THE MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EAST OR NOT. ANOTHER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, AN UNUSUAL MODEL COMPOSITE
WAS USED IN THE DAYS 3-7 BLENDS. A NON-DETERMINISTIC EURO/UKMET
BLEND IS FAVORED ON ALMOST ALL DAYS DUE TO THEIR DIVERGING
SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING POTENTIAL. THE
ECAIFS AND GFS SUITE CLUSTER REASONABLY WELL TOGETHER, AND WERE
THUS FAVORED IN THE BLENDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE
MEANS MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE BLEND BY DAY 6.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW HOVERING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S. THE LOW WILL SERVE AS AN
ANCHOR FOR MAINTAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND REINFORCING COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS AND STRETCH ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST GULF MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST. WITH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE AREA, A MARGINAL RISK
HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA. IN ADDITION, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THE TRAILING END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER/NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE, AS THE
FRONT EXITS OFF THE COAST, WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
U.S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND THE NORTHERN
BORDERS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
OVER ISOLATED HIGH-ELEVATION AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST, BUT IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL.
OVER WESTERN U.S., A SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR LOW-ELEVATION SHOWERS AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, EXPANDING THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. BY SUNDAY. OVER INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/WEST COAST, A RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND 90S.
KEBEDE/OUDIT
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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