860
FXUS01 KWBC 041912
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 05 2026 - 00Z THU MAY 07 2026
...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
BY MID-WEEK...
...SNOW AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES..
...WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA,
WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT SOUTHWARD AND DEEPEN
AS IT MERGES WITH A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BOTH SYSTEMS WILL RESULT INTO A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDWEST, AND THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN IN THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROCKIES AND THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ON TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODEST
COOLING ALOFT AND INSTABILITY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL POSE A
RISK OF LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES. AS SUCH, SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, GIVEN THE LARGE EXTENT OF THE
FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. THE
NORTHERNMOST IMPACTED REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MUCH LESS
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT MOVES IN THE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS
THE GULF COAST. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL INITIATE HEAVY TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SPC HAS ALSO ISSUED YET ANOTHER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THESE REGIONS. THE MAIN THREAT
IS ISOLATED TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME STORMS MAY
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT WILL NOT
BE ON THE SEVERE SIDE.
IN ADDITION, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS AND A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW, WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST AND LOW ELEVATIONS, WITH SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS, SPECIFICALLY THE SIERRA NEVADA. ELSEWHERE, PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SEA-BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR FLORIDA AS THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO BATTLE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
WILDFIRES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES. WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PARTS OF
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COULD SEE HIGHS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GREEN/BLANCO-ALCALA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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