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FXUS06 KWBC 041925
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 14 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE OVERALL
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD AND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA, AND A SECOND TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF HAWAII, AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS
MORE AMPLIFIED AND PERSISTENT IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THE GEFS, WHILE
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC QUICKLY DEAMPLIFIES IN ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ALL MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS), THAT FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH TIME. A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHICH GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES WITH TIME. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS IS
BASED ON RELATIVELY EQUALLY WEIGHTED 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT
IN SOME AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR TEXAS, ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED CONSENSUS
FORECAST AND THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH,
WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG TOOLS ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, EXCLUDING
KAUAI, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA EXCLUDING FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WEST, EXCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY
AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. PROBABILITIES
SLIGHTLY FAVORING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS FORECASTS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 18 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PREDICTED CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF
500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO FLATTEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN
WEEK 2, WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE PREDICTED TROUGH
AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE
DEAMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY IN WEEK 2.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALAEUTIANS IN WEEK 2, AND ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION AND ECMWF BIAS-CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST
PROBABILITIES AND THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNDER EXPANDING
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GULF COAST REGION,
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN
WEEK 2, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. WITH WEAKER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE CENTER OF
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
WEAKER ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECASTS AND
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230430 - 20210510 - 20190507 - 20150421 - 20080518
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190508 - 20230430 - 20150421 - 20250415 - 19950517
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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