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FOUS30 KWBC 051553
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1153 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
DAY 1
VALID 16Z TUE MAY 05 2026 - 12Z WED MAY 06 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MEMPHIS
METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
..16Z UPDATE
IN COLLABORATION WITH MEG/MEMPHIS, TN FORECAST OFFICE, A SLIGHT
RISK UPGRADE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED WITH THIS UPDATE FOR THE MEMPHIS
METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ONGOING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN BOW END OF OTHERWISE LIGHT RAIN NEAR AND OVER MEMPHIS HAS
DROPPED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SMALL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING RAINFALL, WHILE ALL BENEFICIAL,
IS WORKING TO SATURATE THE VERY DRY SOILS IN THE AREA, WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE. BEHIND THE LINE OF RAIN
THIS MORNING, A MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. PWATS ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS RISE WELL ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WHILE INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS COULD RISE ABOVE 2,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND THE NOCTURNAL LLJ TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS, A RENEWED
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE BEFORE MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI. AS
THE STORMS ARE FORMING INTO A LINE, THERE WILL BE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. AS THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE
SAME AREAS CURRENTLY PICKING UP UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, EXPECT A
SMALL AREA OF HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS, THERE WAS MORE RAIN THERE THIS MORNING, SO THE SOILS WILL
BE MORE PRIMED BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE FOR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE, IN
ADDITION TO THE ONGOING RAINFALL, URBAN CONCERNS AROUND THE MEMPHIS
METRO COULD ALSO SUPPORT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
ONCE THE LINE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT, THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE PROGRESSIVE LINE, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO ISOLATED INSTANCES.
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, THE STORMS, WHILE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.
THEY WILL BE UNLIKELY TO TRAIN IN SUCH A WAY AS TO CAUSE MORE THAN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY SOILS
IN PLACE THERE.
WEGMAN
DAY 2
VALID 12Z WED MAY 06 2026 - 12Z THU MAY 07 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SLIGHT
RISK AREA INTRODUCED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD BE INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND
RESULT IN A 140 KT TO 160 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULTING UPPER
DIVERGENCE, STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE
RRFS. THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN THE NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF
THAT HEAVIER AXIS. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT AREA WAS EXPANDED
SOMEWHAT AND TENDED TO COVER THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF HIGHER QPF AND
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES. THINKING IS THAT THERE ARE SOME
PROBABILITIES SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROADER SLIGHT. THE CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BANN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z THU MAY 07 2026 - 12Z FRI MAY 08 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE LINGERING INTO THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THIS
POINT...RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE DECREASING AS THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
DIRECTED ALONG...RATHER THAN NORMAL...TO THE FRONT. MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK AREA WHERE THERE COULD BE OVERLAP WITH AREAS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. OVERALL THE
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MORE BENEFICIAL THAN NOT.
BANN
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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