068
FXUS06 KWBC 051919
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 15 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE OVERALL
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA, AND A SECOND TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII, AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND PERSISTENT IN THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE GEFS, WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS), THAT FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH
TIME. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS PROGRESSION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN CENTRAL CONUS, RELATIVE TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHICH GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED
ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY MORE DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH AN
AUTOMATED CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, FROM THE PACIFIC COAST ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE, WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND FOR FLORIDA,
CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED CONSENSUS FORECAST AND THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH, WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG TOOLS ON THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA
EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH
AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WEST, EXCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND FROM MUCH OF TEXAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 19 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PREDICTED CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO FLATTEN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS IN WEEK 2, WHILE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
PREDICTED TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE DEAMPLIFYING SLIGHTLY IN WEEK 2.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF BIAS-CORRECTED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST
PROBABILITIES AND THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNDER EXPANDING
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE REDUCED,
WHERE MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE INCONSISTENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNDER A PREDICTED
TROUGH, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. WITH WEAKER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS REMAINING
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
WEAKER ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECASTS AND
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230430 - 20190507 - 20080518 - 20210510 - 20250416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190508 - 20230430 - 20150421 - 20210510 - 19950517
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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