115
FXUS01 KWBC 052000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2026
VALID 00Z WED MAY 06 2026 - 00Z FRI MAY 08 2026
...SIGNIFICANT MAY WINTER STORM ONGOING ACROSS WYOMING AND
COLORADO...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK...
...CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
IN THE ROCKIES, A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS BEGUN AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LATEST
AFTERNOON GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES
OVER 4 INCHES AT 50-80% FROM CHEYENNE SOUTHWARD TO DENVER AND THE
PALMER DIVIDE. PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES ARE AT
50-90% FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SAN JUANS. HIGH
ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK, HAVE 60-90%
CHANCES FOR SEEING SNOWFALL OVER A FOOT. OVERALL, THIS ANOMALOUS
MAY WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE WINTER STORM
IMPACTS. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CLASH WITH A UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
THE SOUTH AND BE A FOCAL POINTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THREATS OF TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR NEW
YORK STATE TO NEW ENGLAND. TOMORROW, THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AS LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT FORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW. LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MORE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY FORM INTO
LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF TRAINING STORM MOTIONS. THE MEMPHIS
METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS FLASH FLOODING IS MORE PROBABLE DUE TO HIGH RUNOFF
FROM URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND SATURATED SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING. FOR TOMORROW, A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
SLOW MOVING STORMS AND FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SET THE STAGE FOR A
HIGHER END SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE. MODEL QPF HAD AROUND 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
SLIGHT RISK; TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN IF HIGH WATER IS ON
ROADS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 30S WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE SAME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
20-30 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. FROST AND FREEZES
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE SPRING GROWING SEASON. AS FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS
HIGHS APPROACH THE LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WILDER
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