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FXCA20 KWBC 061643
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 6 MAY 2026 AT 1641 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE
CARIBBEAN FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH,
REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS AND CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GULF AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY.
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE EARLY ON THURSDAY,
RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
EXTEND, MAINTAINING STABILITY IN THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED DAILY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING, MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LOCAL EFFECTS, BUT TOTALS WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
OVER MEXICO, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL, WITH THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION A MORE ACTIVE
RAINFALL PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF RAINFALL WILL BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, INCREASING MOISTURE, GENERATING
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NUEVO LEON REGION,
WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 20-45MM, ALTHOUGH HIGHER LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY.
AN APPROACHING MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC IN THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 15-20MM. DAILY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA, DRIVEN BY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION DAILY. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNAL
HEATING, LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS, MOISTURE ADVECTION, OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONVERGENCE. DAILY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS , ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST. BY SATURDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME WEAKER AND DISORGANIZED, AND
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.
OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
REGION, AND SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG THE BOLIVIAN
HIGH. LESS SUPPORT FROM UPPER-LEVELS IS FORECASTED TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH BECOMES LESS
ORGANIZED. HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL WILL HAPPEN OVER THE
EASTERN AMAZON AND THE GUIANAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AT LOWER
LEVELS ALONG THE ITCZ AND THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. TOTALS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 35-70MM. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY A DRYING TENDENCY WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DUE
TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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