724
FXUS06 KWBC 061909
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 16 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, AND A SECOND TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII, AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA DEAMPLIFIES WITH TIME IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHILE
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A GREATER AMPLITUDE TROUGH
AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA THAN THE ECMWF. ALL
MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS), THAT FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS PERSISTENT
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
AND PROGRESSION LATER IN WEEK 2. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHICH DEAMPLIFIES AND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD WITH TIME, WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL PREDICTS REAMPLIFICATION
OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SLIGHTLY MORE DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, FROM THE PACIFIC COAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDER THE PREDICTED
RIDGE, WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 80 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH, WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG
TOOLS ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, EXCLUDING KAUAI, CONSISTENT WITH
THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA,
EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH
AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE
CONUS, AS TROUGHING PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION IN MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 - 20 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURES FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PREDICTED CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO FLATTEN AND SPREAD OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS IN
WEEK 2. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS LATER IN WEEK 2, COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST.
IN WEEK2, THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFIES
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD, RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MANUAL BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBABILITIES AND THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CONUS IN WEEK 2, EXCLUDING THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST, UNDER EXPANDING POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN
WEEK 2, UNDER A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. WITH WEAKER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND EASTERN GULF COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
AND CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST AND
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190507 - 20080518 - 20210509 - 20250416 - 20200416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190508 - 20230430 - 20150421 - 20080519 - 20210510
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 12 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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