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FOUS30 KWBC 071541
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1141 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
DAY 1
VALID 16Z THU MAY 07 2026 - 12Z FRI MAY 08 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTHERNMOST
GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
..16Z UPDATE
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK WAS TRIMMED AS AN EAST-
WEST AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTED INTO THE UPWIND AND MINIMALLY CAPPED
SEGMENT OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODIC TRAINING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, WITH
TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
REDIRECT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE COMPLEX. AS SUCH, THE HREF AND REFS (WHILE BEING TOO SLOW WITH
THE CONVECTION) BOTH SUGGEST THESE STORMS SHOULD LESSEN IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY LOSE LATITUDE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS SHOULD RELEGATE ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TO AREAS
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
ASHERMAN
DAY 2
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 08 2026 - 12Z SAT MAY 09 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTH TEXAS
GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON FRIDAY WILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE RETURN OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS A PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONT, LINGERING ALONG THE
GULF COAST BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE 1.75 INCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PROVIDING AN AMPLE RESERVOIR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS MOISTURE, ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
WEST TEXAS AND DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY/UPPER JET FORCING, ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RATES. HOWEVER, WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP, CONFIDENCE IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED WITH THIS
CYCLE, WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD REGARDING WHERE THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL ORGANIZE. THEREFORE, THE SLIGHT
RISK THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CARRIED FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR NOW. THE
REINTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES,
PARTICULARLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS CLOSER TO THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MAINTAIN THE HIGHER CATEGORY. FOR NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
PEREIRA
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 09 2026 - 12Z SUN MAY 10 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON DAY 2 WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST, MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST -- DEAMPLIFYING AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL-
EASTERN U.S. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. SIMILAR TO DAY 2,
CONFIDENCE WAS LACKING FOR ANY UPGRADES BEYOND A MARGINAL RISK.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE MODELS START TO MOVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, AN
UPGRADE MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES -- ESPECIALLY IF THE
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW A GROWING SIGNAL FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS
AREAS IMPACTED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINS.
PEREIRA
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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