734
FXUS06 KWBC 071906
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 17 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A COMPLEX, TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT PIVOTS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS. HEIGHTS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS THE WEST COAST IN ITS WAKE. TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT REMNANT CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII WITH A TROUGH FORECAST TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A RIDGE PREDICTED TO
ITS NORTHWEST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS AS EXPANSIVE RIDGING PUSHES EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
(GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AT ITS MAXIMUM. A WEAK AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC.
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY AS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THE
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
DUE MOSTLY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DUE TO EXPANSIVE RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED
FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO PREDICTED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS SURFACE HIGH, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED
SKILL-WEIGHTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A COMPLEX, TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 15 - 21 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ADVANCES EAST.
CONVERSELY, AS THIS RIDGE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WESTERN CONUS, A TROUGH IS
FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH PREDICTED ACROSS ALASKA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK-2,
WITH REMNANT CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CONUS AS AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE AXIS. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC, AS
TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY DISSIPATES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS EARLY RIDGING GIVES WAY TO HEIGHT
FALLS LATER IN THE PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE MOSTLY TO
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, AS A TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF THE MAINLAND AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DUE TO PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE HIGH.
THIS SET-UP FAVORS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION GENERALLY EXCEED
40 PERCENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH CONSOLIDATED SKILL-WEIGHTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN AND LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200422 - 20190507 - 19950521 - 20200417 - 20210421
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190508 - 20080519 - 20200417 - 20210510 - 19950517
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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