896
FXCA20 KWBC 071914
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 7 MAY 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE ISLANDS. THIS, ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT SHOWERS, HOWEVER DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS RELATIVELY LOW VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER PREVAIL, AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, AS THE HIGH
PROPAGATES SLOWLY EASTWARD. DAILY ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW 10MM.
MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION, WHICH ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS, APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN MEXICO,
WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY OVER NUEVA LEON. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30-60MM.
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED AND LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHS ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS AND DEEP CONVECTION. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS IN THE REGION, AND
ADDITIONAL 15-30MM OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY.
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS
OVER LAND IN VERACRUZ AND OVER THE PACIFIC COAST, WHICH WILL BRING
INSTABILITY TO THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
20-40MM.
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED DAILY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD MOSTLY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA, AND
OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE MAIN DRIVERS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER, ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15-20MM, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF MID- TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AMAZON, AND AMAZON DELTA REGIONS
IN BRAZIL, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
25-50MM. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST TODAY, IS THE PACIFIC COAST OF
ECUADOR DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 25-50MM. FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTION, THE PRESENCE OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET, AND LACK OF SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT
UPPER-LEVELS. SOME PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GUIANAS
WITH LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTING MOISTURE IN THE REGION, AND OVER
THE CENTRAL AMAZON REGION WHERE THE CONFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS
IS ANTICIPATED. AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES, PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GUIANAS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON REGION IN PERU AND
ECUADOR, AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE, AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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