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FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 - 18 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A COMPLEX, TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
ANOMALOUS TROUGHS OVER EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A REINFORCING
TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE BERING SEA, RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OFFSHORE OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO FALL
ACROSS THE WEST COAST IN ITS WAKE. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN BUT REMNANT CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CONUS AS EXPANSIVE RIDGING PUSHES EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT ITS MAXIMUM. A WEAK AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE
MOSTLY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA AS STRONG TROUGHING BUILDS
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH COAST, AHEAD OF THE
PREDICTED TROUGH. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE APPALACHIANS, THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
GREAT LAKES, AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO EXPANSIVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
CONSOLIDATED SKILL-WEIGHTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A COMPLEX, TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 16 - 22 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ADVANCES EAST. CONVERSELY, AS THIS RIDGE MOVES AWAY FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS, A TROUGH IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN CONUS, AS AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT, NEAR THE CENTER OF THE PREDICTED MEAN
RIDGE AXIS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, AS
TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD SLOWLY DISSIPATES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR THE FAR WEST, AS TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA,
AHEAD OF THE BERING SEA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, DUE MOSTLY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, AS A
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE HIGH. THIS SET-UP FAVORS
ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION GENERALLY EXCEED 40 PERCENT (WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS). ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE CORN BELT. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND SURROUNDING
AREAS, AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
CONSOLIDATED SKILL-WEIGHTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN AND LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200422 - 20040429 - 20210421 - 19950520 - 20080518
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200418 - 19950521 - 20080519 - 20190511 - 20200423
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN A B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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