484
FXUS01 KWBC 102007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VALID 00Z MON MAY 11 2026 - 00Z WED MAY 13 2026
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SLIGHT
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...
...RECORD-CHALLENGING HEAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON TUESDAY...
...A COUPLE MORE NIGHTS OF FROST/FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES...
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
MAINTAINING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS BEING THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO TONIGHT.
FARTHER UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS EVENING, AND THEN FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
TO MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST WHERE A MARGINAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST STATES.
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING FROST/FREEZE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE MODERATING. THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW, DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
IN CONTRAST TO THE FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES, A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, HEAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY
BUILD UNDER THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE TRIPLE-DIGIT
HEAT COULD BREAK SOME DAILY RECORDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND INTERIOR CALIFORNIA ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THE
POTENTIAL OF RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
INTO THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. WITH 90S REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS
IDAHO. ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE, HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WILL BRING ELEVATED HEAT
RISK THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KONG
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