195
FXUS06 KWBC 111902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 17 - 21 2026
THE 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS), GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE (CMCE) MEANS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN WITH TIME. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES A 534DM CLOSED 500-HPA LOW CENTERED OVER THE
BERING SEA, WITH 5-DAY MEAN HEIGHTS 12DM OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. BELOW-NORMAL
HEIGHTS EXTEND ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
DOWNSTREAM, A MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH MEAN ANOMALIES ABOVE +12 DM AND
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE FAR WEST. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS)
WITH MEAN ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +9 DM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, LOWER NORTHEAST, AND
OHIO VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS WITH AN AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST. HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH THE SHAPE OF TROUGH BEING BETTER DEFINED BY
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS WEST AND EAST. THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD CENTERED CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL CONUS BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER, THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN MODERATELY WAX AND WANE IN STRENGTH, AND THE ANOMALY
CENTERS DRIFT AROUND A BIT, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THEIR
POSITIONS; THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN ON DAY 10 (MAY 21) LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE
6-10 DAY (MAY 17-21) MEAN PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THE CMCE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE THAN THE
OTHER TWO, AND THE ECENS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THERE IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER, SO
THE MANUAL BLEND INCLUDED ALL THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC (ECMWF) MODEL, WHICH RESEMBLED A MORE AMPLIFIED COMPROMISE OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD AND EXPANDS TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH THE GREATEST POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER OR NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER
NORTHEAST. THIS GIVES THE EASTERN SEABOARD THE BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION HAVING A 70 TO
80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST, ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECREASE, BUT ABNORMAL WARMTH REMAINS FAVORED OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CONUS DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST,
AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS THERE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL. ODDS FOR WARMTH INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARD THE WEST COAST UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, EXCEEDING 50
PERCENT IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE CONUS ARE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE HIGH PLAINS, ROCKIES, AND
NORTHWEST. FARTHER NORTH, THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED 500-HPA LOW
FAVOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALASKA, NORTHEAST
OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH AXIS. GUIDANCE IS ALMOST UNANIMOUS INDICATING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS HAWAII
SOUTH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE. CHANCES ARE MOST ENHANCED (OVER 80
PERCENT) OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
GUIDANCE.
THE STRONG CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. CONFIDENCE IN SURPLUS
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE. ACROSS THE CONUS, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INDUCE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE,
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, IS EXPECTED TO
ESTABLISH A STRONG FETCH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS. THIS ENHANCES ODDS FOR
SURPLUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL TIER OF THE CONUS, WITH CHANCES
EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF TEXAS, SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, AND SOME ADJACENT
AREAS. MOVING EASTWARD, INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION END
AT THE APPALACHIANS, CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ANOMALY CENTER.
THERE ARE MARGINALLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IN PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC BASED ON THEIR LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND
INDICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE MODEL ANALOGS. MEANWHILE, NEAR OR UPSTREAM FROM
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED OUTSIDE THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. THE
BEST PROBABILITIES FOR DEFICIENT PRECIPITATION (ABOVE 50 PERCENT) APPEAR ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL AMOUNTS ARE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. TO THE
SOUTH, RAW PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE MEANS RATHER
STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS, BUT THE REFORECAST TOTALS ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS ROBUST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPROXIMATELY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE, GIVING THE STATE
SOMEWHAT INCREASED LIKELIHOODS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ON THE
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAW,
STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED, AND ANALOG OUTPUTS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 19 - 25 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL FEATURES EXPECTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD PERSIST OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DURING WEEK-2, AND REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE, MAKING NO NOTABLE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. IN FACT, THE CMCE AND GEFS MEANS SHOW THE POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RETROGRESSING LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
AMPLITUDE. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DESPITE NEAR
NORMAL HEIGHTS DUE TO RIDGING BOTH UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM. WEST OF THE
UPSTREAM NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE, THE STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS AND
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPEAR TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE REMAINING APPROXIMATELY IN
PLACE, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS WEAKENING IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS COULD BE DUE TO
INCREASING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS LATER WEEK-2. THUS MORE
AMPLITUDE MAY BE MAINTAINED THAN INDICATED IN THE MEANS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK-2 ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE CONUS, WITH A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE BEST CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, EXCEEDING 60
PERCENT IN PART OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES. THE MAIN CHANGE RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BROAD EASTERN
CONUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OR RETROGRADING WESTWARD WITH TIME. ACROSS THE
CONUS, THE ONLY AREA WITH MODERATELY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS IN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES, AND SUPPORT FROM SOME MODEL
ANALOGS. SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF ALASKA, WITH MODEST NORTHWARD EXPANSION POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH,
GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS HAWAII, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG
ISLAND.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO CONTINUE IMPACTING ALASKA,
MAINTAINING ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE BASED ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAIN ACROSS PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEEK-2,
WITH PROBABILITIES TOPPING 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THERE ARE MARGINALLY INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, AND THIS EXTENDS
NORTHWARD IN A BROAD SWATH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM
FROM A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND UPSTREAM FROM A RIDGE, WITH A NORTHWARD ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MARGINALLY-ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR PART OF THE NORTHWEST FROM CENTRAL
WASHINGTON THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EASTWARD INTO IDAHO, CONSISTENT WITH
A PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE. AS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, RAW
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES ROBUSTLY FORECAST SURPLUS PRECIPITATION
STATEWIDE WHILE THE REFORECAST MODEL OUTPUT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE, SOMEWHAT FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
INCREASING DISPARITY AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940511 - 20200423 - 20130513 - 19960427 - 20080518
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200423 - 19940510 - 19960427 - 20130513 - 20040429
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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