549
FXUS01 KWBC 111939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 12 2026 - 00Z THU MAY 14 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
TODAY ...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THESE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS
ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THESE
REASONS, STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFFECTED AREAS. IN ADDITION
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
LOUISIANA. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING ALONG JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
DAY, TODAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE COLD FRONT MOVING
IN, AND PEAK DAY TIME HEATING, A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION IS
PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY EVENING, INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NORTHWEST INDIANA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5). A SIMILAR STEP UP IS EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL FLORIDA AS SPC ALSO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
THE SAME HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WHERE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIA REGION. FURTHERMORE,
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE
NEXT 3-5 DAYS.
LASTLY, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK (LEVEL 2/3) IS IN PLACE FOR
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY VEGETATION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HUMIDITY
LEVELS COULD DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 20-25% IN THE AFTERNOON.
GREEN
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