185
FXUS01 KWBC 121930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VALID 00Z WED MAY 13 2026 - 00Z FRI MAY 15 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES, AND FLORIDA TODAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
...MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY
WEDNESDAY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 50S, THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP WITH SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THE BEST CHANCE MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN FLORIDA, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH WHICH IS CREATING MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW SUPERCELL POSSIBLE, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IN ADDITION, THESE STORMS MAY BRING THREATS OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THESE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND POSE
A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS. DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
ON WEDNESDAY, A FRONTAL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA IN WHICH SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) DUE TOO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC TOMORROW
AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
WIND GUST.
IN ADDITION, THE COLD FRONT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WITH BRING A CHANCE FOR MODERATE WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATING
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LASTLY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OUT WEST
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BY THURSDAY INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
GREEN
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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