784
FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 19 - 23 2026
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA ANOMALIES FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE
OUTSET OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
HIGHER LATITUDES WITH TWO DEFINED TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OF
GREENLAND, AS WELL AS A WEAKER TROUGH SITUATED BETWEEN THE RIDGES OVER THE WEST
AND EAST COASTS. OVER TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY RETROGRESS THE PACIFIC
RIDGE AND FLATTEN OUT THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
TWIN RIDGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RESULT IN ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED FOR BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(>60%) ARE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM IS INDICATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 50% FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS FAVORED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN
BORDER, AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS WHERE WEAK TROUGHING FAVORS INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION.
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION ALONG WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ODDS ARE HIGHEST (>50%) OVER MUCH OF TEXAS, LIKELY
WHERE THE ABOVE-DESCRIBED INTERACTION WILL BE BEST-FOCUSED. THE STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO DISPLACE THE PACIFIC STORM
TRACK WELL NORTH, PUSHING MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (>40%) FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF
OREGON, DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DISPLACED STORM TRACK AND
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE.
ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTICS AND COHERENT SIGNALS FROM FORECAST
TOOLS, OFFSET BY A SHIFTING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 21 - 27 2026
THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FEATURES A SIMILAR SETUP TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, RESULTING IN SIMILAR OUTLOOKS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BY THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT, WITH THE ECENS IN PARTICULAR SHOWING A VERY LARGE
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RETROGRESSING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION.
PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE LOWER 48 RESULT IN THE ODDS
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS, WHILE WEAKNESS
IN THESE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS NOTED, MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES A LOT IN WEEK-2 LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS WEAK TROUGHING FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHIFTS WESTWARD AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FILL IN.
SOUTHERN ALASKA TILTS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE NORTHERN
MAINLAND IS INDICATED FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOST LIKELY FOR HAWAII.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2, FED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
(>50%) FOR MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO, AS INDICATED BY
MOST FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS AS RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC KEEPS THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE IMPACTED BY RETURN FLOW MOISTURE.
THE NORTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. THE HAWAII CON AND ERF AUTOBLEND INDICATE A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH A
SHIFTING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND A WIDE SPREAD AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS, OFFSET BY
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940511 - 20130514 - 20170504 - 20200426 - 20080518
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940511 - 20130513 - 20200424 - 20080518 - 19970508
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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