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FXUS06 KWBC 141902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 20 - 24 2026
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA ANOMALIES FROM THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE HAVE
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER NORTH
AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES WITH TWO DEFINED TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
SOUTH OF GREENLAND, AS WELL AS A WEAKER TROUGH SITUATED BETWEEN THE RIDGES OVER
THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. OVER TIME MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY RETROGRESS THE
PACIFIC RIDGE AND FLATTEN OUT THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING
LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
TWIN RIDGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RESULT IN ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED FOR BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(>60%) ARE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. A WEAK SECONDARY MAXIMUM IS INDICATED ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
ODDS EXCEEDING 40% FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. MEANWHILE, NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION AS TROUGHING OVER THE
WEST COAST ENCOURAGES INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ACTIVE WEATHER. TROUGHING OVER
THE BERING SEA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR
NORTHERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION ALONG WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ODDS ARE HIGHEST (>60%) OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, LIKELY WHERE THE ABOVE-DESCRIBED INTERACTION WILL BE
BEST-FOCUSED. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO
DISPLACE THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WELL NORTH, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST, AND
NEAR-NORMAL INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND THE NORTHERN TIER. THE
DISPLACED STORM TRACK AND TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTICS AND COHERENT SIGNALS FROM FORECAST
TOOLS, OFFSET BY A SHIFTING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 - 28 2026
THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FEATURES A SIMILAR SETUP TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, RESULTING IN SIMILAR OUTLOOKS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. AS
NOTED ABOVE, MODEL SPREAD IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH
THE ECENS AND GEFS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND THE INTENSITY OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE LOWER 48 RESULT IN THE ODDS
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST, DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
TEXAS AS CONTINUED MOIST INFLOW INCREASES CLOUDINESS. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WEAK TROUGHING FROM
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SHIFTS WESTWARD AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FILL IN.
SOUTHERN ALASKA TILTS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE NORTHERN
MAINLAND IS INDICATED FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, CONSISTENT WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOST LIKELY FOR HAWAII.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR MUCH OF WEEK-2, FED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RETURN FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED
(>50%) FOR TEXAS AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO AND OKLAHOMA, AS INDICATED BY
MOST FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS
AS RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC KEEPS THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE NORTHEAST, A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE IMPACTED BY RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE. THE NORTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK ONCE AGAIN FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. THE HAWAII CON AND ERF AUTOBLEND INDICATE A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET BY A SHIFTING
SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940511 - 20130514 - 20070427 - 20200427 - 20170503
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940511 - 20130514 - 20200425 - 20200505 - 20070427
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 20 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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