631
FXUS02 KWBC 160755
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 19 2026 - 12Z SAT MAY 23 2026
***MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE FOR THE EAST COAST***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
SUPPORTING AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE, AND A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES THAT WILL BRING A ROUND OF LATE SEASON SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING. AT THE INTERFACE OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL BE BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES DECENT OVERALL
AGREEMENT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY, AND A GENERAL
MODEL COMPROMISE WORKS AS A STARTING POINT FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTIES WITH SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY SATURDAY
AS DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD INCREASES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE PLAINS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY, THE BEST FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS TEXAS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO ARKANSAS
AND THE MID-SOUTH AS THE FRONT INTERCEPTS DEEPER MOISTURE AND SLOWS
DOWN IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS VALID FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE OZARKS FOR THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO EXIST. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY GOING
INTO DAY 5/WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT, HEAT WILL BE MAKING HEADLINES FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH TO ESTABLISH SOME DAILY
RECORD HIGHS BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RELIEF FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE OPPOSITE WILL
HOLD TRUE FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS TO START THE WEEK, AND SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION TREND.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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