554
FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
DEPICTED ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES, WITH ONE OVER THE BERING SEA/WESTERN
ALASKA AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF GREENLAND. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE BERING
SEA/WESTERN ALASKA TROUGH IS FORECASTED ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED OVER HAWAII, WITH AN ANOMALOUS
RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTH, AND A SHEARED-OUT TROUGH TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST IN
MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH A WEAK BRIDGING OF THE LATTER TWO AREAS OF FAVORED
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THE
WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES IS CONSISTENT WITH
BROAD COVERAGE OF MID-LEVEL POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (>60%) ARE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AS INDICATED BY THE AUTOBLEND TEMPERATURE
TOOL AND ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. NEAR-
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING OVER
THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN PARTS OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALONG WITH A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE FOCUSED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM NEAR THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH SUPPORTS
ELEVATED DEW POINTS OVER THIS SAME GENERAL AREA OF THE COUNTRY. ODDS ARE
HIGHEST (>50%) OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, LIKELY WHERE THE ABOVE-DESCRIBED
INTERACTION WILL BE BEST-FOCUSED. MOST OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS ARE
FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: 4 ON A SCALE OF 1-5, DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE,
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 24 - 30 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES
THE CONTINUATION OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE.
DURING WEEK-2, THE LATTER RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF CANADA, BECOMING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL FEATURE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH ITS STRONGEST PORTION LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA
AND THE ADJACENT BERING SEA. THE TROUGH PREDICTED SOUTH OF GREENLAND DURING THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD HAS MOSTLY FILLED, WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES CLOSE TO ZERO
IN WEEK-2.
THE PREDICTED WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE SUPPORTS ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLANS. CHANCES FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60% OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NEAR THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA/WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS
FAR NORTH AS THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE. WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE ERF-CON AND AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND BY A SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREDICTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT
OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING
AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE REGIONS, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST GUIDANCE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA AND
HAWAII, DUE TO SIMILAR REASONING FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5, BASED ON
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070427 - 20200427 - 20060506 - 20240530 - 20180509
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070427 - 20200428 - 19940511 - 20130514 - 20010427
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N A COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 24 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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