454
FXUS01 KWBC 161930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 17 2026 - 00Z TUE MAY 19 2026
...ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...HEAT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AS SPRING SNOWS BREW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EVENTUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. THROUGH TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT SPANNING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAZARDS WITH THESE STRONG STORMS WILL
INCLUDE THE THREAT OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, WHERE AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN EFFECT.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SLOW-MOVING
AND CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AS WELL, RESULTING IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, SOUTHERN IOWA, AND THE BORDERING REGIONS
OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS. RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS AND REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ON SUNDAY FROM MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND HELPS LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO TO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA,
INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DAMAGING WINDS,
VERY LARGE HAIL, STRONG TORNADOES, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON MONDAY,
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PERSIST AND SPAN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT COULD CREATE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST, AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS
FROM OKLAHOMA TO IOWA.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS STRONG
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTERACTS WITH DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FROM ARIZONA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED AN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY BETWEEN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS TO THIS REGION ARE URGED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT PROMOTE
OPEN FLAMES AND SPARKS.
QUITE THE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND EVEN SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL IMPACTS THE WEST AND ROCKIES, WHILE INCREASING HEAT
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR THE WEST,
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY RECORD COLD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY ACROSS WYOMING IS FORECAST UNDER A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WEATHER PATTERN ALLOWS FOR LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF
WESTERN MONTANA, WYOMING, COLORADO, AND NORTHERN UTAH. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ON
THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WHEN COMPARED TO MID-MAY CLIMATOLOGY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGHS
SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SNELL
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