687
FXUS01 KWBC 170815
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 17 2026 - 12Z TUE MAY 19 2026
...ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THEN THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...
...HEAT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AS HEAVY WET SNOW BLANKETS
THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING, THE FRONT RANGE, AND THE WASATCH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL TAKE
A COUPLE DAYS TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL
BE THE IMPETUS FOR ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS
WELL AS A ROUND OF HEAVY WET SNOW FOR THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. A MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN EARLY THIS
MORNING IS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HEAVY RAIN. BY THIS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ERUPT AS AN INITIAL
IMPULSE FROM THE DIGGING TROUGH EJECTS OUT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WHERE LONG-TRACK SEVERE WEATHER COULD IMPACT THIS
AREA.
ON MONDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EASTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LARGE HAIL, STRONG TORNADOES, AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. AS THIS ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
UNFOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A ROUND OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS
FORECAST TO BLANKET THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING, THE FRONT
RANGE, AND THE WASATCH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. ONE TO TWO FEET OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE WIND RIVER RANGE, NORTHERN WASATCH, AND ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THIS ROUND
OF INCLEMENT WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS WILL COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A CONSOLIDATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW MEETS WITH
DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM ARIZONA TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY BETWEEN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THIS REGION ARE URGED TO
AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT PROMOTE OPEN FLAMES AND SPARKS.
QUITE THE CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS COLD AND SNOW IMPACT THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE HEAT INTENSIFIES IN THE EASTERN
U.S.. IN FACT, SOME RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS WYOMING WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
MID-90S COULD BREAK SOME DAILY RECORDS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENDS THIS
STRETCH OF HEAT BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS AREA.
KONG/SNELL
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