366
FXUS06 KWBC 171902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 23 - 27 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES ANOMALOUS RIDGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
DEPICTED OVER ALASKA AND SOUTH OF GREENLAND. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED OVER HAWAII, WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTH, AND A
SHEARED-OUT TROUGH TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST IN MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN, NORTH-CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER
48 STATES IS CONSISTENT WITH BROAD COVERAGE OF MID-LEVEL POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (>60%) ARE OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST
TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, WHERE INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. TROUGHING OVER ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVOR NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREDICTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, ALONG WITH A MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS, PLUS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH
SUPPORTING ELEVATED DEW POINTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. ODDS ARE
HIGHEST (>60%) OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, LIKELY WHERE THE ABOVE-DESCRIBED
INTERACTION WILL BE BEST-FOCUSED. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALASKA FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE STATE. ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: 4 ON A SCALE OF 1-5, DUE TO
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE,
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 25 - 31 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES
THE CONTINUATION OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE.
DURING WEEK-2, THE LATTER RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF CANADA, BECOMING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL FEATURE OVER NORTH AMERICA. A TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
REMAIN OVER ALASKA. THE TROUGH PREDICTED SOUTH OF GREENLAND DURING THE EARLIER
6-10 DAY PERIOD HAS MOSTLY FILLED, WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES CLOSE TO ZERO IN
WEEK-2. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER HAWAII.
THE PREDICTED WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD EXPANSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE SUPPORTS ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLANS, AGAIN LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES NEAR THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALASKA
CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE ERF-CON AND
AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND BY A SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREDICTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT
OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL
500HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER THE REGIONS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR BOTH OF ALASKA AND HAWAII, DUE
TO SIMILAR REASONING FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5, BASED ON
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240531 - 20060506 - 20070427 - 20110506 - 20250501
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070427 - 20200428 - 20180507 - 20010428 - 20000522
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 23 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 25 - 31 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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