342
FXUS01 KWBC 171959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VALID 00Z MON MAY 18 2026 - 00Z WED MAY 20 2026
...MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS...
...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TODAY INTO MONDAY...
...HEAVY WET SNOW BLANKETS THE HIGHER-ELEVATIONS OF WYOMING, THE
FRONT RANGE, AND THE WASATCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING AN ENERGETIC
UPPER-TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A SIMILAR SET
UP WILL BE IN PLACE DAY-TO-DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH HAS BROUGHT PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEADING
TO STRONG INSTABILITY. FAVORABLY TIMED EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES WITHIN
THE FAST FLOW OF THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY (SUNDAY), THE GREATEST THREAT IS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND
MULTIPLE TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE INTENSE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A RISK OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY. FOR TOMORROW, THE THREAT SHIFTS A BIT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FROM THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF VERY LARGE
HAIL, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. A FOCUSED
CORRIDOR WITH A HIGHER THREAT FOR INTENSE TORNADOES AND GIANT HAIL
HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE THE OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5). ADDITIONAL MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) IN PLACE.
THE FRONT WILL SPEED UP TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH
CLUSTERS/ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWER INSTABILITY AND THE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT WILL LESSEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COMPARED TO MONDAY, THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH A BROAD SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE FASTER MOVING FRONT SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL DURATION LEADING TO JUST AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. MEANWHILE, HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100,
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE
HAVE PROMPTED AN EXTREME RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE SPC (LEVEL
3/3) FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS WELL AS
MONDAY. QUICK STARTING AND FAST MOVING, DANGEROUS WILDFIRES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE DEEP UPPER-TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PARTICULARLY FOR WYOMING, THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE, AND THE WASATCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TOTALS LOCALLY
HIGHER THAN A FOOT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR SOME
OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THUDNERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH
FLORIDA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH A BUILDING UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF SUMMER THAN
MID- TO LATE SPRING. WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S
ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST. MANY DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CAROLINAS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO THE WEST, MUCH COLDER, CHILLY MAY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL PROGRESSIVELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO
THE 30S FOR AREAS OF EASTERN WYOMING MONDAY. FROST AND FREEZE
RELATED ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THEY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD BUT
PROVIDE A STARK CHANGE COMPARED TO THE HEAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FURTHER NORTH AND 60S INTO THE LOW 70S
FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A WARM-UP TO START THE WEEK
AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AND 80S AND 90S FOR
INLAND CALIFORNIA.
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