027
FXUS01 KWBC 181933
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 19 2026 - 00Z THU MAY 21 2026
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK...
...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY WET SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...
...AN EARLY-SEASON HEATWAVE WILL CHALLENGE TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST INTO TONIGHT. RICH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF WILL INTERACT WITH A WAVY, SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, TRIGGERING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BOLSTERED BY AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE MID/SOUTHERN MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW POTENTIALLY
STRONG TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE IS ALSO
A HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI, IOWA, NEBRASKA, AND KANSAS. SLOW-MOVING
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-3"/HR. THESE DRENCHING STORMS WILL LIKELY REPEATEDLY
TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS, LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS A RESULT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD, SHIFTING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MEASURED ONCE SNOW COMES TO AN END. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, LEADING TO FROST AND FREEZE
CONCERNS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON THE HOTTER AND DRIER FLANK OF THIS DYNAMIC AND MULTIFACETED
STORM SYSTEM, THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH
SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL SUPPORT THE IGNITION AND EXTREMELY RAPID
SPREAD OF NEW AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME EXACERBATED WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD AND
RAPIDLY SHIFTS SURFACE WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH SNOW, SEVERE, AND FIRE WEATHER IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, THE EASTERN U.S. IS ENTERING AN
EARLY-SEASON HEATWAVE. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, STEERING A LONG FETCH OF WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST, HIGHLIGHTING THE SEASON'S FIRST
EXTENDED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT FOR MILLIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.
MILLER
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