488
FXUS02 KWBC 190756
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 22 2026 - 12Z TUE MAY 26 2026
***MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL GENERATE A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TROUGH ARRIVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS AVERAGE AGREEMENT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY, WITH DIFFERENCES APPARENT
IN THE EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST, AND WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FURTHER BY
SUNDAY WITH NOTEWORTHY TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES, AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH BRINGING IN THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD, WITH
THE SLOWER AND BETTER CLUSTERED ECMWF/AIFS/CMC GUIDANCE PREFERRED
OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT HALF BY NEXT TUESDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES GOING INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
HIGHEST QPF SHOULD BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND WHERE
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND
AFFECT THE SAME AREAS. BOTH DAY 4/FRIDAY AND DAY 5/SATURDAY FEATURE
BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREAS, WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT A SLIGHT RISK
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA WITH
OVERRUNNING FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND MODERATE
RAINFALL FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD ALSO
BE CORRIDORS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS REGION TO
SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN RAINFALL TOTALS IN FUTURE FORECASTS BASED ON
RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, A COLD AIR DAMMING TYPE EVENT WILL
LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK, AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE, RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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