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FXUS06 KWBC 191912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 25 - 29 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS DEPICT A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION RELATIVE TO THE GEFS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH A TROUGH NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. AS TIME PROGRESSES,
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST. A SECOND, WEAKER TROUGH IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON ITS EVOLUTION. A VERY STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST
DOWNSTREAM OVER HUDSON BAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE WEST IS CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM
THE RIDGE ANOMALY CENTER. A WEAKER TRANSIENT RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING
ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, AHEAD
OF A MEAN TROUGH AXIS NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS, DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MEAN TROUGHING. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE RESTRICTED TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DUE TO LARGE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES ACROSS THE WEST. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST, WHERE ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MOST LIKELY. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SURROUNDING
REGIONS, CLOSER TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST,
AS A TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY
FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DUE TO PREDICTED WEAK TROUGHING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE
GEFS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - JUN 02, 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING REMAINS A DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER HUDSON BAY, PARTICULARLY AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS. EARLY RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
VERY HIGH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES WITHIN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW. EARLY TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH TIME, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY
HIGH AS TO HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THIS RETROGRESSION AND WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR. MEANWHILE, WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BUT VARY GREATLY ON THE TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE
WEST IS THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST COAST IN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER HUDSON BAY IS SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE LARGEST. A WEAKER TRANSIENT RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING MODESTLY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRECLUDED FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THESE REGIONS. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN
MID ATLANTIC, AND MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA. ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST, WHERE THIS ENHANCED
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WHERE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY
FAVORED FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
RELATIVELY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910528 - 20250429 - 20250515 - 20170429 - 20060506
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250501 - 20240531 - 20060506 - 20110506 - 20250515
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 25 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - JUN 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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