421
FXUS01 KWBC 191939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VALID 00Z WED MAY 20 2026 - 00Z FRI MAY 22 2026
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS WILL EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND BECOME POTENTIALLY MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY...
...AN EARLY-SEASON HEATWAVE WILL CHALLENGE HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MIDWEST AND GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
AS AN EJECTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING, A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING REGIONAL THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A
CORRESPONDING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOME OF THESE SAME
AREAS, AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE HEAVIEST AND MORE CONCENTRATED WILL BE
DOWN ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL TEXAS (INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY) AND UP INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SETTLED WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AREAS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST, THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY STALL
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY.
A RATHER COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE MIDWEST
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY HELP BREAK AN ONGOING
HEATWAVE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-90S FOR SEVERAL
MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS INCLUDING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK A NUMBER OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECORDS. HOWEVER, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE AID OF CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC
AND AREAS OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL AS MANY OF
THESE AREAS ARE DEALING WITH AN ONGOING DROUGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A
RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ORRISON
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