038
FXUS06 KWBC 201902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 26 - 30 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY AS THE GEFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE
AMPLIFIED ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH HAS TRENDED MUCH STRONGER TODAY
AND EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A VERY STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM, CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO, PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE COUPLED WITH UPSTREAM CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST IS CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE ANOMALY CENTER. A WEAKER
TRANSIENT RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE WEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO
ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, GREAT
PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF PREDICTED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (GREATER 50
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, WHERE ENHANCED
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS MOST LIKELY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, CLOSER TO THE PREDICTED RIDGE AXIS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, AS TODAY'S MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, AS PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW PROMOTES
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 03, 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING REMAINS A DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER, MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A RETROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE TOWARD WESTERN CANADA. EARLY
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON
HOW FAST THIS WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN OF NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH TIME. MEANWHILE,
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
THEREAFTER, HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE
TOUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO BE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA IS SUPPORTIVE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH, WHERE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE LARGEST. A WEAKER TRANSIENT RIDGE IS FORECAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
SUPPORTING MODESTLY ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER, TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE ANOMALY CENTER
OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC, REDUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS
REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE WEST COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, PRECLUDED FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC, AND MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES,
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. ENHANCED
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS THE GULF COAST
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC
FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170430 - 20250515 - 19910528 - 20200523 - 20250430
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250501 - 20120528 - 20250515 - 19910528 - 20170429
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 26 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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