206
FXUS01 KWBC 201922
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
VALID 00Z THU MAY 21 2026 - 00Z SAT MAY 23 2026
...SEVERE WEATHER WILL THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING,
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST TEXAS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS, INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AREAS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS GOING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
...ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ALLOW A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. AS A MUCH COOLER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY NOSE INTO THE NORTHEAST,
BUT THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY BECOME DRAPED AND QUASI-STATIONARY
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR REGIONAL AREAS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE COLD FRONT INITIALLY WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
DEPICTED THIS REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. A
GENERALLY ISOLATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY
BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WHERE ENOUGH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DRAW A CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS. HOWEVER, MOST
OF THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A DROUGHT AND THUS THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL. MEANWHILE, THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THERE WILL BE CLUSTERS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL
INCLUDE AREAS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
MANY AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL STAY UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY
AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHEAST IT ALONG. MORE
BENEFICIAL RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN, BUT ALSO THE IMPACT OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL DIP INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, BRINGING A BROADENING AREA OF RAIN AND
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GOING INTO FRIDAY, THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
EXPAND THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. CONVERSELY, MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHOULD TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
ORRISON
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