148
FXUS01 KWBC 211956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 22 2026 - 00Z SUN MAY 24 2026
...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTHWARD
TO TEXAS AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
...A WET MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST,
WHILE THE WEST REMAINS DRY...
...SNOW/WINTRY MIX ARE EXPECTED IN THE ROCKIES, WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES OVER THE MIDSECTION
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL AID IN SUSTAINING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
APPROACH THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO COMMENCE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STORMS COULD BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN COLORADO AND
PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
FARTHER SOUTH IN TEXAS, A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHWARD, EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING INTO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION COULD
BE HEAVY AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT TIMES, WITH RAIN RATES BETWEEN
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. AS
SUCH, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST
FOR THIS AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE RAIN ON FRIDAY, A RETURN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. STORMS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS INTENSE, BUT WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF, PRECIPITATION WILL BRING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT, THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF
WETTER WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HEADING INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING OVER
THE LOWER TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND TRACK INTO THE MIDWEST, REACHING THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING EXTREMELY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL INTO THE EASTERN U.S., THOUGH ARRIVING OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A STARK
CONTRAST TO THE HEAT THAT THE EAST RECEIVED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
FARTHER WEST, A ROUND OF WET SNOW AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN
AND FORCES THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IN
THIS AREA SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. IN CONTRAST TO THE WET CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE EAST,
MOST OF THE WEST WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, WHICH ACTS AS UNWELCOME
NEWS FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, A
RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEST,
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS DISSIPATES.
BLANCO-ALCALA/KONG
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