827
FXUS01 KWBC 220719
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 22 2026 - 12Z SUN MAY 24 2026
...SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...ANOTHER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...A WET AND UNSETTLED MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF THE EAST, WHILE THE WEST REMAINS WARM AND DRY...
A SLOW-MOVING, WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE
EASTERN U.S. ALONG AN UNDULATING FRONT SEPARATING WARM AND HUMID
AIR TO THE SOUTH FROM MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR TO THE NORTH
WILL PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. COOL, WET, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY PUT A DAMPER
ON SOME MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS WAVES OF
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S THERE WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR A SHARP CONTRAST FROM THE INTENSE EARLY SEASON
HEATWAVE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, SOME OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING, WITH DAILY THREATS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
FRIDAY, THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO GROW TO BECOME
STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY, ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WHERE MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL, WIND, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. MANY STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO CONTAIN LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS, A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
SOUTHEAST. WHILE STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY,
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. MEANWHILE, THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL RAMPS
UP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF LOUISIANA AS RICH
GULF MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD.
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
REPEATEDLY TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT ALREADY HAVE
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A FLASH FLOODING THREAT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A HIGHER END SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) IS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH ANY
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED.
MEANWHILE, WITH WET AND STORMY WEATHER KEEPING THE EASTERN U.S.
UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR THE
WESTERN U.S. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS ACROSS SOME
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA, THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEST WILL STAY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST, WITH 90S AND
100S CONFINED TO THE LOWER DESERTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND
ARIZONA.
MILLER
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