545
FXUS01 KWBC 221659
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 23 2026 - 00Z MON MAY 25 2026
...SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...A WET AND UNSETTLED MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH
OF THE EAST, WHILE THE WEST REMAINS WARM AND DRY...
A SLOW-MOVING, WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST INTO MID-ATLANTIC. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, SOME
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING, WITH DAILY THREATS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN
WARM MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, WITH ADDITIONAL THREATS OF HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO GROW TO BECOME STRONG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY, ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES, AND IN PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE
MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL, WIND, AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. IN ADDITION, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL STORM
CLUSTERS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
APPALACHIANS, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND ALABAMA, WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.
THE STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREATS MOVING
INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WHILE STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS
THAN ON FRIDAY, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE
AND ADEQUATELY MOIST. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES REPEATEDLY TRACKING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT
ALREADY HAVE SATURATED GROUNDS WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, A HIGHER END
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, THOUGH ANY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED.
MEANWHILE, WITH WET AND STORMY WEATHER KEEPING THE EASTERN U.S.
UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR THE
WESTERN U.S. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS ACROSS SOME
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE ROCKIES AND SIERRA, THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEST WILL STAY DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITHIN
INLAND AREAS ACROSS THE WEST, WITH 100S CONFINED TO THE LOWER
DESERTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND ARIZONA. ON MONDAY, 15-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.
OUDIT/MILLER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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