691
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2026
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGE (+240 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER) IS PREDICTED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON
EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA AND OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TIED TO THESE FEATURES.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FAVORING NEAR-NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING RETROGRADING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. NEAR NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS CANADA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FARTHER SOUTH, AS RIDGING BECOMES LESS
INFLUENTIAL AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SUPPORTS LESS ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURES. THE UNCALIBRATED 0Z DYNAMICAL ENSEMBLES DEPICT ELEVATED CHANCES
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. ITS CORRESPONDING REFORECAST
TOOL ALSO SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH A SIMILAR,
BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED SIGNAL, IN THE CANADIAN REFORECAST TOOL. ANALOG GUIDANCE
ALSO SUPPORTS A LEAN TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BEING FAVORED OVER MANY AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. FLORIDA CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TIED TO WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A
TRANSITIONAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH
GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE AS THE FEATURE WEAKENS. THIS GENERALLY
SUPPORTS NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE WEST.
ALONG THE EAST COAST, TROUGHING IS MORE ENHANCED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. CORRESPONDINGLY, TOOLS HAVE TRENDED COOLER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL IS FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED
ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING INITIALLY PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF, WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A WET PATTERN
PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ELEVATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST TIED TO RIDGING ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS
PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW PROMOTES ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL
WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, AVERAGE TOOL
AGREEMENT IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AMPLIFIED RIDGING INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA IS
FORECAST TO BROADEN AND RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TOWARD WESTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THE BROADER RIDGE AXIS, POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST +30 METERS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE EASTERN SEABOARD, IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND, INCREASING TO GREATER THAN +90 METERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAKNESS REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. A TROUGH
IS ALSO MORE STRONGLY FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BRINGING NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FAVORS ENHANCED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS WITH TIME AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD, LEADING
TO INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, AND
NEAR-TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 AS THE MEAN RIDGING RETROGRADES, WITH STRONGER
SIGNALS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORTING PROBABILITIES ABOVE 40 PERCENT EXTENDING TO THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS ALSO FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. AREAS OF
THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEE A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE ANALOGS AND A
LINGERING OF THE WETTER PATTERN DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD INTO WEEK-2.
TROUGHING RETROGRADING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND PARTS
OF THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE MAINLAND TIED TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS
IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN
CONUS, GREAT PLAINS, AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A CONTINUED
WEAKNESS IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
LINGERING RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE
IS A NOTABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE STRONGEST PRECIPITATION SIGNALS TOWARD
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN INCREASED ABOVE 50 PERCENT OVER SOME AREAS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A DRYING TREND IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AS RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE REGION, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BECOMING FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL
WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250515 - 20200523 - 20250604 - 19910528 - 20060506
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250515 - 20120528 - 20250501 - 20060506 - 19910528
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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