566
FXUS02 KWBC 230632
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 26 2026 - 12Z SAT MAY 30 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...
..OVERVIEW
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTH- CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FOCUS IN PARTS OF TEXAS AND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, POTENTIALLY OVER AREAS THAT WILL
ALREADY HAVE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. OUT WEST, A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN STARTS TO EMERGE AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH LIKELY BECOMING
A CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ENVELOPS MORE OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MID TO LATE WEEK, YIELDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM IN THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S., REACHING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TREND MORE AND MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING CONSISTENCY ON A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST WHICH MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS/GEFS WERE WEAK AND FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT NOW SEEM TO HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS WHAT HAS BEEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR A FEW DAYS.
JUST SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW
MAY REACH, WITH THE CMC STILL THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND SLOWER TO
EJECT IT EASTWARD. DOWNSTREAM, AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH ON STRONG UPPER RIDGING, ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS INTO IT
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., WITH TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE DETAILS. SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH TROUGHING AND A
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE WPC BLEND FOR SURFACE AND UPPER PROGS WAS BASED ON A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING ENSEMBLE MEAN WEIGHTING FOR THE SECOND HALF. THIS
MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
PERSISTENT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR PARTS OF TEXAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE RECENT RAINS AND ADDITIONAL
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM HAS LEAD TO RATHER SATURATED GROUNDS. FOR
THE DAYS 4 AND 5 EROS, BROAD MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND DID GO AHEAD WITH SLIGHT RISKS FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL-SOUTHERN TEXAS ON DAY 4/TUESDAY AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS/FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL AGREEMENT. THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT THE PATTERN
OVERALL FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH FLOODING AN
INCREASING CONCERN WITH A VERY WET RECENT PATTERN SO FELT SLIGHT
RISKS AT THIS RANGE NOW WERE WARRANTED. THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA MID TO
LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT MAY GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVER
TEXAS.
UPPER TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEK. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES TO ROCKIES.
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
COOLER IN THIS REGION THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MODERATING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS. THE UPPER
RIDGE TO ITS EAST WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.
SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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