831
FXUS06 KWBC 231902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE (+240 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER) PREDICTED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). TROUGHS
ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TIED TO THESE FEATURES.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FAVORING NEAR-NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
PREDICTED ACROSS CANADA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70
PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INTRODUCED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED
ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING INITIALLY PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF, WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A WET PATTERN
PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ELEVATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST TIED
TO RIDGING ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
ANALOGS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
CYCLONIC FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND, AS PREDICTED
CYCLONIC FLOW PROMOTES ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE
WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES THE CONTINUATION OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND
THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAKNESS REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST. A TROUGH IS ALSO MORE STRONGLY FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
BRINGING NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK TROUGHING AND BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR NORMAL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 AS THE MEAN RIDGING RETROGRADES, WITH STRONGER
SIGNALS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORTING PROBABILITIES ABOVE 40 PERCENT EXTENDING TO MOST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS ALSO FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING
RETROGRADING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES, GREAT
PLAINS, AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE
500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND LINGERING RETURN
FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED ODDS
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A DRYING TREND IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AS RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE REGION, WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION BECOMING
FAVORED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250604 - 20250515 - 20060506 - 19910528 - 20200523
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250515 - 20060506 - 20120528 - 19910528 - 20250604
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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