232
FXUS02 KWBC 231922
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 26 2026 - 12Z SAT MAY 30 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN U.S...
..OVERVIEW
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FOCUS IN PARTS OF TEXAS AND
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, POTENTIALLY OVER AREAS THAT WILL
ALREADY HAVE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. OUT WEST, A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN STARTS TO EMERGE AS A CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ENVELOPS MORE OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MID TO
LATE WEEK, YIELDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM IN THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S., REACHING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BECOME RATHER GOOD FOR THE UPPER LOW
DIVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO LINGER LATE WEEK
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. A 12Z MODEL
COMPOSITE SHOULD WORK WELL WITH THAT FEATURE, AFTER THE 00Z GFS
WAS THE MAIN OUTLIER IN SHOWING THE LOW SHUNTING EAST TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED MUCH
CLOSER TO CONSENSUS.
TO THE EAST, UPPER RIDGING WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS INTO
IT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., WITH TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS. AS THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO REFORM WITH A NEUTRAL TILT ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN STARTS TO LOOK MORE LIKE AN OMEGA
BLOCK AS TROUGHING RETROGRADES INTO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z RUNS WITH THAT NORTHEAST TROUGH,
INCLUDING THE EC/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE GFS FARTHER WEST, THE
12Z GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING A BETTER MIDDLE GROUND FORECAST
THAT IS MORE LIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND AIFS.
WITH INCREASING CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS, USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME INCLUSION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD TO MITIGATE INDIVIDUAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ROUNDS OF PERSISTENT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPACTFUL
FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE RECENT
RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM HAS LEAD TO RATHER
SATURATED GROUNDS. FOR THE DAYS 4 AND 5 EROS, BROAD MARGINAL RISKS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S., AND CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISKS FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON DAY
4/TUESDAY AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA ON DAY
5/WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CHANGE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT THE PATTERN
OVERALL FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH FLOODING AN INCREASING
CONCERN GIVEN THE POTENTIALLY CONCERNING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT MAY GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVER TEXAS.
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND MEANDERING AROUND THE
GREAT BASIN WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AHEAD OF IT WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES TO ROCKIES. COMBINING ENERGIES
WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO STRETCH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST FOR MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
COOLER IN THIS REGION THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME
MODERATING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO ITS EAST WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH GREATEST
ANOMALIES THROUGH AROUND MIDWEEK.
TATE/SANTORELLI
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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