901
FXUS06 KWBC 241902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE (+240 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER) PREDICTED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). DEEP TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS,
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TIED TO THESE FEATURES. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED
ACROSS CANADA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA, WHERE NEAR- NORMAL OR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INTRODUCED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES
OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING INITIALLY PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF, WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A WET PATTERN
PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED) AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE , UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST TIED TO RIDGING ALONG
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, AS PREDICTED CYCLONIC
FLOW PROMOTES ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE
WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES THE CONTINUATION OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND
THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER SOUTH OF
GREENLAND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST COAST. WEAK TROUGHING AND
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2 AS THE MEAN RIDGING RETROGRADES, WITH STRONGER
SIGNALS FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORTING PROBABILITIES OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT EXTENDING TO THE
PACIFIC COAST. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS ALSO FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. TROUGHING
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BERING SEA FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND TIED TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES, GREAT
PLAINS, AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE
500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND LINGERING RETURN
FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED ODDS
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. A DRYING TREND
IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS RIDGING EXPANDS INTO
THE REGION. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA,
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240508 - 20060505 - 20250604 - 19910529 - 20250514
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060506 - 19910529 - 20250515 - 20120528 - 20240508
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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