580
FXUS06 KWBC 251902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE (+210 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER) PREDICTED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TIED TO THESE FEATURES. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED
ACROSS CANADA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ELEVATED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO
ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED
WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING INITIALLY PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF, WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A WET PATTERN
PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AT
LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED) AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST TIED TO RIDGING ALONG
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS. NEAR-TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA AS PREDICTED CYCLONIC
FLOW PROMOTES ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE
WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES THE CONTINUATION OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND
THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. WEAK ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA.
NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH ERF TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS
IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES,
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A CONTINUED WEAKNESS
IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND LINGERING
RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240508 - 20060506 - 19910529 - 20250514 - 19980507
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20060505 - 20240507 - 20250515 - 19910529 - 20120528
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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