925
FXUS06 KWBC 261905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES AN ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE (+150 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER) PREDICTED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS). TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS TIED TO THESE FEATURES. ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PREDICTED ACROSS CANADA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF
HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING INITIALLY PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FAVORS
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF, WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORS A WET PATTERN
PERSISTING ALONG THE GULF COAST, EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, AND
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTS OF OREGON, NEVADA, IDAHO, MONTANA, AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON, TIED TO RIDGING ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND ANALOGS. NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS WHILE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SMALL
PARTS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE
WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES THE CONTINUATION OF AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AND
THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS. A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. WEAK ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO BE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
MOST OF ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE-NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TIED TO A CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE
500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND LINGERING RETURN
FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INCREASED ODDS
FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240506 - 19910530 - 19980507 - 20240601 - 20250514
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240507 - 20060505 - 19910530 - 20250515 - 20250603
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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