239
FXUS01 KWBC 261907
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VALID 00Z WED MAY 27 2026 - 00Z FRI MAY 29 2026
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK...
...AN UNUSUALLY COLD PACIFIC STORM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN...
...UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, SOARING 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK FOR RAPID RUNOFF, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN,
LOW-LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE PACIFIC LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STALLED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY.
UNDERNEATH AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST,
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND THE CASCADES. THE COMBINATION OF
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COLDER AIR MASS ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, UTAH, AND ARIZONA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, CREATING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WHERE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
IN CONTRAST, UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S AND 90S,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THIS
EARLY-SEASON HEAT WILL REMAIN 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
POSING A HAZARD TO HEAT-SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO MAJOR LEVELS OF HEATRISK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE COOLER,
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST, KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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